Dimitris Rapidis

Is this true or not?

A couple of days now political and military mobilization is being stirred over the possible invasion of NATO in Syria. As of 2001 or 2003 when the United States pressed for invading Afghanistan and Iraq under the pretext of the war against terrorism, President Obama, and from the EU leaders mainly UK’s PM David Cameron, have launched their polemic against President Assad under the pretext of the use of chemical weapons against civilians. A new war might be ahead, but the reasoning lacks serious justification.

The European Union is keeping its voice low and statements are more skeptical without exertion of verbal threats. In the forthcoming article of mine in the Greek weekly Free Sunday this weekend I point out my firm prediction that a warfare in Syria initiated by the United States and its allies is not that possible to happen. I focus my analysis on the fact that having in mind the previous experience of invasion from the US in Afghanistan and Iraq, the outcome of military reinforcement and implementation has ended up creating a disastrous post-war condition. Devastating infrastructure, poverty, unemployment, lack of basic needs and, overall, a potential fractious politics in the years to follow.

The United States cannot acknowledge that they do not possess the military, financial, and diplomatic largesse to launch such an invasion in alignment with other strategic allies in Europe. In the contrary, the discussion in the UK and Europe seems to be more rational and, fundamentally, more bound to the legislation of the international public law and the respect over the sovereignty and the independence of each nation globally. Even if the development of civil war in Syria has taken unprecedented dimensions, especially with the alleged use of chemical weapons –for which I repeat we do not have certain and concrete evidence of use- there is no external power authorized to act on behalf of the Syrian people, nor the Iraqi people, nor the Iranian people, or the Israeli people or anyone else.

No more behind the scenes

 

I strongly believe that President’s Obama determination to launch an attack on Syria will certainly lead to another endless war in the Middle East and it can possibly involve Iran, Turkey, and Israel long-term. In addition, mainstream media in Europe and the United States have completely forgotten that the civil war in Syria has been from the onset a deeply sectarian, foreign-funded insurgency, independently from the atrocities made by both Assad and the counter-Assad movement. There is no democratic uprising, nor Arab Spring in Syria; it is simply an artificial war that it turns to be a bloodshed with no signs of retreat or compromise. Every information streaming from the media is widely hypocritical and ironic, except for the countless massacres of the people of Syria.

Furthermore, there are two additional variables dealing with the possible invasion in Syria. The one is linked with the role of Russia, and the second with the fact that the US cannot discern that by hitting Syria -and henceforth the forces of President Assad- they automatically commit their side to the camp of Al-Qaeda.

Russia’s military supplies have been critical to Assad’s army success on the battlefield, let alone the fact that Moscow has consistently support diplomatically Syria in the United Nations. The latter is inextricably interwoven with the US pretext on military invasion based on the use of chemical weapons as there is no other diplomatic or mediating means to get practically involved in Syria. Further, there is less interest on the fact that most of the alleged use of chemical weapons has been destined to the Kurdish community and that anti-rebel sentiments are on the rise during last months. In many areas in Syria locals seem to be more inclined to live in peace than face death penalty by siding Assad or the the so-called rebels. There are many extremists coming back to Assad’s camp, mainly due to government’s policy to grant amnesty.

On the other hand, if US decides to intervene in Syria, it will set itself on the side of Al-Qaida and the forces that are affiliated with. Historically, politically, and strategically such a decision is going to confuse public opinion in the US and dismantle all the previous propaganda on the war against terrorism since 2001.

Under such complicated conditions, I certainly believe that during the following days all strategic groups in the US and Europe should seriously ponder on the prons and cons of such an invasion. And, above all, they should additionally ponder on the side-effects in the aftermath of the military intervention for Syria and the wider region.

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  1. Армения в конечном итоге станет частью Турции: курды-езиды покидают Армению.
    Араик Саргсян, академик, вице-президент Академии геополитических проблем России, Почетный Консул Македонии в Армении.
    Послезавтра, 3 сентября состоится рабочий визит в Москву президента Армении Сержа Саргсяна.
    Армянские СМИ трубят об этом предстоящем событии уже целую неделю. И при этом теряются в догадках – а что же удастся Саргсяну получить от России, учитывая, что политику он ведёт по отношению к России весьма недружественную?
    Главное содержание армянской политики последних лет – это игры с Евросоюзом за спиной у России. И вообще, с тех пор, как к власти пришёл карабахский клан Кочарян-Саргсян, Армения всё больше становится государством с явно завышенной самооценкой, в то время, как рыночная стоимость армянского суверенитета подверглась очень сильной инфляции из-за бездарной и предельно коррумпированной политики правящего клана.
    Ломаясь в ответ на предложения о вступлении в Таможенный союз, Армения совершенно не осознаёт, что в экономическом отношении она нужна ТС не больше, чем рыбе зонтик. Настаивать на вхождении Армении в ТС Россия не собирается, как бы ни раздували манию величия армянские СМИ, так как у неё хватает и других рычагов влияния на Кавказе. Плацдарм в лице Армении не помешал бы, но не более того. Наоборот, это самой Армении вступление в ТС принесёт несоразмеримо большие выгоды.
    Но Саргсян вместо этого ломится в Евросоюз, пытаясь по примеру Украины подписать договор об ассоциации на саммите «восточного партнёрства» в Вильнюсе. Его греет тщетная надежда получить большую денежную помощь в условиях коллапса армянской экономики, вызванного «генетической невозможностью сосуществования армян с азербайджанцами и другими национальностями» – выражение самого Саргсяна. На фоне попыток что-то получить и от России, Армения проводит целенаправленную политику вытеснения оставшихся в стране русских, а так же курдов-езидов.
    Можно заметить, что Россия не скрывает того, что ей это не нравится. Даже визит президента Армении в Москву оформлен не как официальный, как это обычно бывает при мероприятиях такого формата, а как рабочий. Именно вытеснение русских и карабахский вопрос к ужасу Саргсяна могут стать главными темами этой встречи, а вовсе не братская помощь армянскому народу, как на это надеется Саргсян. Ибо братьев не пытаются обвести вокруг пальца – а Саргсян только этим и занимается, больше думая об откатах в миллиарды долларов, чем об интересах своей страны. Что ждёт Армению при отказе от интеграции с Россией в обмен на сомнительные посулы Евросоюза – Армения в конечном итоге станет частью Турции, как передового участника ЕС и члена НАТО.
    С Саргсяном и его кланом всё ясно. Остаётся открытым только один вопрос – долго ли будет армянский народ терпеть подобных лидеров? Визит Президента Армении состоится в Москву в те дни, когда страны и народы региона ждут военной агресии США, Англии, Израиля, Турции, Катара, Франции и Саудовской Аравии против народов Сирии. Между тем Начальник штаба вооруженных сил Ирана генералХасан Фирузабади подчеркнул , что военное вмешательство США в Сирии будет стоить России Кавказа, передвинув рубежи обороны Кремля к Москве. “Страны региона, поддерживающие эту жестокую войну, понесут серьезные потери”, – сказал он. Фирузабади подчеркнул, что по Израилю будут также нанесены ответные удары, в случае если США нападут на Сирию. Ввяжется ли Россия в войну за Сирию, навряд ли!

    Араик Саргсян, академик, вице-президент Академии геополитических проблем России, Почетный Консул Македонии в Армении.

    1. Dear Aleks,

      Thank you very much for the time & interest to write such a long comment.
      As I don’t know Russian, I have tried to make an automatic translation, but I couldn’t make it..
      Your text seems very interesting, but I would like to kindly ask you to rewrite it in English so that me myself and all of us as well could profit from.

      Could that be possible?

      Thank you in advance & best regards,
      Dim

  2. Armenia will eventually become part of Turkey : Kurdish -Yazidis are leaving Armenia.
    Arayik Sargsyan , academician, president of the Academy of Geopolitical , Macedonian Honorary Consul in Armenia.
    The day after tomorrow , September 3 will pay a working visit to Moscow by President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan.
    Armenian media are trumpeting about this upcoming event for a whole week. And at the same time are at a loss – and what can Sargsyan get from Russia , given that it is the policy in relation to Russia is very unfriendly ?
    The main content of the Armenian policy in recent years – is the game with the European Union behind Russia . Anyway, since then , came to power in Karabakh clan Kocharian and Sargsyan , Armenia is increasingly becoming a country with high self-esteem is clearly , at the time, as the market value of the Armenian sovereignty has undergone a very high inflation because of the extremely corrupt and incompetent politicians of the ruling clan .
    Breaking in response to a proposal to join the Customs Union , Armenia is completely unaware that in economic terms, it does not need a vehicle more than the fish umbrella . Insist on joining the Customs Union of Armenia Russia is not going to , no matter how inflated delusions of grandeur Armenian media , as she had enough and other levers of influence in the Caucasus. Bridgehead in the face of Armenia would not hurt , but no more. On the contrary , it is the most Armenia joining the CU bring it disproportionately large benefits .
    But instead Sargsyan was breaking into the European Union , following the example of Ukraine trying to sign association agreement at the summit of “Eastern Partnership” in Vilnius. It warms the vain hope of getting more financial aid in the collapse of the Armenian economy caused by “genetic impossibility of coexistence of Azerbaijanis and Armenians from other nationalities ” – an expression of the Sargsyan . Against the background of attempts to get something from Russia and Armenia, pursues a policy of repression left the country in Russian , as well as the Yezidi Kurds .
    You can see that Russia does not hide the fact that she does not like it . Even the Armenian President’s visit to Moscow is designed not as an official , as is usually the case with events of this size , but as a worker. It ousting Russian and Karabakh issue to the horror Sargsyan may be the main topics of the meeting , rather than fraternal assistance to the Armenian people , as it looks to Sargsyan . For the brothers are not trying to cheat – and Sargsyan and only those engaged in more thinking about the billions of dollars in kickbacks than the interests of his country. What will happen with Armenia in case of failure of integration with Russia in exchange for dubious promises of the EU – Armenia will eventually become part of Turkey , as the best party to the EU and NATO member .
    With Sargsyan and his clan is clear. Remains open only one question – how long will the Armenian people tolerate such leaders? The visit of the President of Armenia will be held in Moscow in the days when the country and the people of the region are waiting for military aggression United States, Britain , Israel, Turkey , Qatar, Saudi Arabia, France, and against the people of Syria. Meanwhile, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces general Hasan Firuzabadi stressed that the U.S. military intervention in Syria will cost Russia Caucasus , moving the defense line of the Kremlin in Moscow. ” Countries in the region that support this brutal war , suffer serious losses,” – he said. Firuzabadi stressed that Israel will also hit back , if the U.S. attacks Syria. Russia got involved in a war for Syria , it is unlikely !

    Arayik Sargsyan , academician, president of the Academy of Geopolitical, Russian , Macedonian Honorary Consul in Armenia.

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